{"id":9135,"date":"2023-04-13T13:07:45","date_gmt":"2023-04-13T13:07:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/lynettelockhart.com\/client\/factbox-wall-st-banks-expect\/"},"modified":"2023-04-13T13:11:40","modified_gmt":"2023-04-13T13:11:40","slug":"factbox-wall-st-banks-expect","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/lynettelockhart.com\/client\/factbox-wall-st-banks-expect\/","title":{"rendered":"Factbox-Wall St banks expect one more Fed rate-hike as recession looms"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>(Reuters) &#8211;     Most major U.S. banks expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by another 25 basis points next month, following evidence of sticky inflation and a strong labor market.<\/p>\n<p>The Fed had pressed ahead with a hike in March as well, even though the U.S. banking crisis raised the specter of a recession as lending conditions tightened.<\/p>\n<p>Money markets are currently pricing in a roughly 65% chance of a 25bps hike from the Fed in May. Such a hike will bring the Fed Funds rate increase for this cycle to 5%, taking the rate to the 5% to 5.25% range. Traders expect a pause thereafter and see rate cuts beginning in the second half of the year.<\/p>\n<p>Following are forecasts from some big U.S. banks and their global counterparts: <\/p>\n<p>                        May Fed         Terminal Rate    U.S. recession forecast          <\/p>\n<p>           Bank         forecast        Expectation                <\/p>\n<p>           J.P.Morgan   25 bps hike     5% &#8211; 5.25%       Sees a U.S. recession          <\/p>\n<p>                                                         occurring in Q4 2023          <\/p>\n<p>           Morgan       25 bps hike     5% &#8211; 5.25%       &#8211;          <\/p>\n<p>           Stanley                                                 <\/p>\n<p>           BofA         25 bps hike     5% &#8211; 5.25%       Sees meaningful risk of          <\/p>\n<p>                                                         contraction in Q2           <\/p>\n<p>           UBS          25 bps hike     5% &#8211; 5.25%       &#8211;          <\/p>\n<p>           Deutsche     25 bps hike     5.10%            Expects moderate recession          <\/p>\n<p>           Bank                                          starting in Q4 2023          <\/p>\n<p>           Goldman      25 bps hike     5% &#8211; 5.25%       Sees 35% probability of U.S.          <\/p>\n<p>           Sachs                                         entering a recession over the          <\/p>\n<p>                                                         next year          <\/p>\n<p>           Barclays     25 bps hike     5% &#8211; 5.25%       &#8211;          <\/p>\n<p>           Citigroup    25 bps hike     5.5% &#8211; 5.75%     &#8211;          <\/p>\n<p>           Societe      25 bps hike     5.5% &#8211; 5.75%     &#8211;          <\/p>\n<p>           Generale                                                <\/p>\n<p>           Wells Fargo  25 bps hike     &#8211;                Sees recession as likely in          <\/p>\n<p>                                                         the back half of the year          <\/p>\n<p>           Nomura       No hike         &#8211;                &#8211;          <\/p>\n<p \/>\n<p> (Compiled by Broker Research team in Bengaluru; Editing by Devika Syamnath)<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/lynettelockhart.com\/client\/factbox-wall-st-banks-expect\/file-photo-federal-reserve-building-is-pictured-in-washington-3\/\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/lynettelockhart.com\/client\/wp-content\/uploads\/Reuters_Direct_Media\/USOnlineReportBusinessNews\/tagreuters.com2023binary_LYNXMPEJ3C0I9-VIEWIMAGE.jpg\" alt=\"tagreuters.com2023binary_LYNXMPEJ3C0I9-VIEWIMAGE\"><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>(Reuters) &#8211; Most major U.S. banks expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by another 25 basis points next month, following evidence of sticky inflation and a strong labor market. The Fed had pressed ahead with a hike in March as well, even though the U.S. banking crisis raised the specter of a recession [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":9136,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"spay_email":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1213],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9135","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-u-s-business"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"http:\/\/lynettelockhart.com\/client\/wp-content\/uploads\/Reuters_Direct_Media\/USOnlineReportBusinessNews\/tagreuters.com2023binary_LYNXMPEJ3C0I9-VIEWIMAGE.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/lynettelockhart.com\/client\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9135","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/lynettelockhart.com\/client\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/lynettelockhart.com\/client\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/lynettelockhart.com\/client\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/lynettelockhart.com\/client\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9135"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/lynettelockhart.com\/client\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9135\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":9137,"href":"http:\/\/lynettelockhart.com\/client\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9135\/revisions\/9137"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/lynettelockhart.com\/client\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/9136"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/lynettelockhart.com\/client\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9135"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/lynettelockhart.com\/client\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9135"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/lynettelockhart.com\/client\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9135"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}