{"id":32718,"date":"2023-05-03T14:33:51","date_gmt":"2023-05-03T14:33:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/lynettelockhart.com\/client\/copper-to-drift-higher\/"},"modified":"2023-05-03T14:44:48","modified_gmt":"2023-05-03T14:44:48","slug":"copper-to-drift-higher","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/lynettelockhart.com\/client\/copper-to-drift-higher\/","title":{"rendered":"Copper to drift higher, but struggle to rally: Reuters poll"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Eric Onstad and Ashitha Shivaprasad<\/p>\n

LONDON\/BENGALURU (Reuters) – Copper prices are due to recover slightly in coming months, supported by low inventories, but the upside will be curbed by weak physical demand in China and the threat of a global recession, a Reuters poll showed. <\/p>\n

Copper prices have been gradually losing steam since hitting their strongest levels in over seven months in January when optimism abounded about the reopening of the world’s second biggest economy. <\/p>\n

Prices have shed 10% since that peak as demand has disappointed in top metals consumer China and dark clouds threaten the global economy. <\/p>\n

“Copper will likely remain rangebound for now as the battle between recession and China demand, and falling stocks continue,” said Ole Hansen at Saxo Bank. <\/p>\n

“Investor involvement remains weak as macro economic-focused funds remain sidelined.”<\/p>\n

The cash copper contract on the London Metal Exchange (LME) is expected to average $8,840 a tonne in the third quarter, a median forecast of 25 analysts showed.<\/p>\n

That is 4% higher than Tuesday’s closing price. <\/p>\n

Disruptions may hit mine output, leading analysts to trim a forecast surplus for this year to 133,000 tonnes from 165,000 tonnes of oversupply in the previous poll. <\/p>\n

CHINA ALUMINIUM<\/p>\n

Aluminium prices have shed 12% since touching a peak in January as output increased and inventories rose amid tepid demand for the metal used in the auto, packaging and construction sectors. <\/p>\n

Top producer China saw primary aluminium output in March climb from a year earlier, but at a slower place than previous months. <\/p>\n

“We expect China’s 2023 aluminium production to rise year-on-year despite production cuts and output curtailments early in the year,” said Sudakshina Unnikrishnan at Standard Chartered Bank.<\/p>\n

The LME cash aluminium price is seen averaging $2,425 a tonne in the third quarter, 2% firmer than the current price.<\/p>\n

Analysts have marked up their estimates for an aluminium market surplus this year to 113,500 tonnes from 80,535 tonnes forecast in January. <\/p>\n

INDONESIA NICKEL OUTPUT<\/p>\n

Nickel is the worst performing LME metal so far this year, sliding 19%, largely on worries about rising output in Indonesia. The Asian country mainly produces nickel pig iron – a lower-nickel-content substitute for refined nickel.<\/p>\n

“Due to relentless mined nickel supply growth in Indonesia, and its broad-based nickel-bearing exports, we remain longer-term bears on the global nickel price,” said Tom Price at Liberum. <\/p>\n

The main use for nickel is in stainless steel, but the metal’s biggest growth area is for electric vehicle batteries. <\/p>\n

Analysts expect LME cash nickel prices to average $22,273 a tonne in the third quarter, down 11% from current levels.<\/p>\n

They also expect the global nickel market to see a surplus of 112,000 tonnes this year and an oversupply of 89,500 tonnes in 2024. <\/p>\n

\n

(Reporting by Eric Onstad; Editing by Christina Fincher)<\/p>\n

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By Eric Onstad and Ashitha Shivaprasad LONDON\/BENGALURU (Reuters) – Copper prices are due to recover slightly in coming months, supported by low inventories, but the upside will be curbed by weak physical demand in China and the threat of a global recession, a Reuters poll showed. Copper prices have been gradually losing steam since hitting […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":32719,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"spay_email":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1213],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-32718","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-u-s-business"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"http:\/\/lynettelockhart.com\/client\/wp-content\/uploads\/Reuters_Direct_Media\/USOnlineReportBusinessNews\/tagreuters.com2023binary_LYNXMPEJ420M6-VIEWIMAGE.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/lynettelockhart.com\/client\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32718","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/lynettelockhart.com\/client\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/lynettelockhart.com\/client\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/lynettelockhart.com\/client\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/lynettelockhart.com\/client\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=32718"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/lynettelockhart.com\/client\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32718\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":32720,"href":"http:\/\/lynettelockhart.com\/client\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32718\/revisions\/32720"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/lynettelockhart.com\/client\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/32719"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/lynettelockhart.com\/client\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=32718"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/lynettelockhart.com\/client\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=32718"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/lynettelockhart.com\/client\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=32718"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}