{"id":21412,"date":"2023-04-24T12:51:44","date_gmt":"2023-04-24T12:51:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/lynettelockhart.com\/client\/turkey-year-end-inflation-seen\/"},"modified":"2023-04-24T12:56:13","modified_gmt":"2023-04-24T12:56:13","slug":"turkey-year-end-inflation-seen","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/lynettelockhart.com\/client\/turkey-year-end-inflation-seen\/","title":{"rendered":"Turkey year-end inflation seen at 46% despite likely post-election rate hikes – Reuters poll"},"content":{"rendered":"

ISTANBUL (Reuters) – Turkish inflation will dip to 46.4% by end-2023, a Reuters poll showed on Monday, while the policy rate is seen rising to 24% next quarter after upcoming elections that pose the greatest challenge to President Tayyip Erdogan’s 20-year rule.<\/p>\n

Turkey’s consumer price index surged in the wake of a currency crisis sparked by an unorthodox easing cycle in late 2021. Interest rate cuts were part of Erdogan’s policy of prioritising growth, investment and low borrowing costs.<\/p>\n

The inflation surge, to above 85% last year, hit Erdogan’s popularity and polls show him trailing his main challenger. Economists expect a move towards more orthodox policies after the May 14 election.<\/p>\n

All 21 economists in the poll expect the central bank (CBRT) to keep its benchmark rate steady at 8.5% this week, its last monetary policy committee meeting before the vote.<\/p>\n

“We expect the CBRT to stay on hold at 8.5%,” JP Morgan said in a note, adding that policy uncertainty for future meetings remained high. <\/p>\n

After this week’s meeting, the monetary policy committee will next convene on May 25. However the outcome of the presidential election may not become clear until after a potential second round vote on May 28.<\/p>\n

Turkey’s policy rate was seen rising to 24.0% in the third quarter, medians showed. It was seen rising to 25.0% in the fourth quarter before falling to 16.5% by end-2024.<\/p>\n

Despite expected interest rate hikes, inflation was seen remaining elevated through the year and falling only to 46.4% at end-2023, the poll found, compared to 50.5% in March. It was seen declining to 28.8% by end-2024 and 19.3% by end-2025.<\/p>\n

While slashing its policy rate from 19% at the end of 2021, the central bank has said price stability will be achieved when Turkey flips its chronic current account deficit to a surplus.<\/p>\n

Ankara says this will be achieved through its import-boosting economic plan. But the war in Ukraine and a decline in foreign demand dashed those hopes in 2022.<\/p>\n

The current account deficit in 2023 is expected to be 4.4% of Turkey’s gross domestic product (GDP), the median showed, compared to a government forecast of 2.5%. <\/p>\n

The deficit was seen at 3.4% in 2024 and 2.5% in 2025, compared to government predictions published in September of 1.4% and 0.9%, respectively.<\/p>\n

GDP growth was seen at 2.6% this year, according to the median estimate of 34 economists. The government had forecast growth of 5% before massive earthquakes in February that are expected shave up to 2 percentage points off economic growth.<\/p>\n

The median growth forecast stood at 3.0% for 2024 and 3.8% for 2025 in the poll, compared to the government’s 5.5% forecast for both years.<\/p>\n

(For other stories from the Reuters global economic poll:)<\/p>\n

\n

(Polling by Vijayalakshmi Srinivasan and Prerana Bhat in Bangalore; Writing by Ali Kucukgocmen; Editing by Jonathan Spicer and Christina Fincher)<\/p>\n

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ISTANBUL (Reuters) – Turkish inflation will dip to 46.4% by end-2023, a Reuters poll showed on Monday, while the policy rate is seen rising to 24% next quarter after upcoming elections that pose the greatest challenge to President Tayyip Erdogan’s 20-year rule. Turkey’s consumer price index surged in the wake of a currency crisis sparked […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":21413,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"spay_email":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1216],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-21412","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-u-s-economy"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"http:\/\/lynettelockhart.com\/client\/wp-content\/uploads\/Reuters_Direct_Media\/USOnlineReportEconomy\/tagreuters.com2023binary_LYNXMPEJ3N0DN-VIEWIMAGE.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/lynettelockhart.com\/client\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21412","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/lynettelockhart.com\/client\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/lynettelockhart.com\/client\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/lynettelockhart.com\/client\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/lynettelockhart.com\/client\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=21412"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/lynettelockhart.com\/client\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21412\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":21414,"href":"http:\/\/lynettelockhart.com\/client\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/21412\/revisions\/21414"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/lynettelockhart.com\/client\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/21413"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/lynettelockhart.com\/client\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=21412"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/lynettelockhart.com\/client\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=21412"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/lynettelockhart.com\/client\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=21412"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}