{"id":10103,"date":"2023-04-14T06:40:16","date_gmt":"2023-04-14T06:40:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/lynettelockhart.com\/client\/chinas-q1-gdp-growth\/"},"modified":"2023-04-14T06:43:30","modified_gmt":"2023-04-14T06:43:30","slug":"chinas-first-quarter-gdp-growth","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/lynettelockhart.com\/client\/chinas-first-quarter-gdp-growth\/","title":{"rendered":"China’s first-quarter GDP growth seen rebounding to 4.0%, 2023 rate seen at 5.4% – Reuters poll"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Kevin Yao<\/p>\n

BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s gross domestic product likely perked up in the first quarter of the year, a Reuters poll showed on Friday, as the end of strict COVID-19 curbs helped lift the world’s second-largest economy out of a crippling pandemic slump.<\/p>\n

GDP growth was seen speeding up to 4.0% in the first quarter from a year earlier, from 2.9% in the previous three months, according to the median forecast of 70 economists polled by Reuters. That would be the fastest growth since the first quarter of last year.<\/p>\n

For 2023, growth was expected to pick up to 5.4%, the poll showed, from 3.0% last year – one of its worst performances in nearly half a century due to strict COVID-19 curbs.<\/p>\n

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(Graphic: China’s slow recovery – https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/graphics\/CHINA-ECONOMY\/GDP\/zjpqjaobxvx\/chart.png)<\/p>\n

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Recent data shows the economy is staging a gradual but uneven recovery, led by consumption, services and infrastructure, but slowing inflation and surging bank savings raise doubts over the strength of a pick-up in domestic demand.<\/p>\n

“We have seen dividends from COVID policy shift on consumption and investment, including stronger than expected exports,” said Zhang Yiping, economist at China Merchants Securities in Shenzhen.<\/p>\n

“Domestic demand is improving but the strength of the recovery is not sufficient.”<\/p>\n

Policymakers have pledged to step up support for the world’s second-largest economy, which is rebounding after disruptions caused by a sudden lifting of COVID-19 curbs in December.<\/p>\n

The government has set a modest target for economic growth of around 5% for this year, after badly missing the 2022 goal. <\/p>\n

Growth is then expected to moderate to 5.0% in 2024, the Reuters poll showed.<\/p>\n

The government is due to release first quarter GDP data, along with March activity data, at 0200 GMT on April 18.<\/p>\n

PATCHY RECOVERY<\/p>\n

China’s exports unexpectedly surged in March, data showed this week, but analysts cautioned the improvement partly reflects suppliers catching up with unfulfilled orders after last year’s COVID-19 disruptions.<\/p>\n

New bank lending hit an all-time high in the first quarter, but consumer inflation slipped to an 18-month low and factory-gate deflation deepened in March, raising the odds for more easing to inject momentum into the economic recovery.<\/p>\n

Households added a staggering 9.9 trillion yuan in bank deposits the first quarter alone, more than half the 17.8 trillion yuan for the whole of 2022.<\/p>\n

On a quarterly basis, the economy is forecast to grow 2.2% in January-March, compared with no change in October-December, the poll showed.<\/p>\n

To support the growth, policymakers will rely on a mix of modest monetary easing and infrastructure spending, alongside efforts to bolster the property sector.<\/p>\n

The central bank has promised to make its policy “precise and forceful” this year to support the economy, keeping liquidity reasonably ample and lowering funding costs for businesses.<\/p>\n

Analysts polled by Reuters expect the central bank to keep the benchmark lending rate – the one-year loan prime rate (LPR) and banks’ reserve requirement ratio (RRR) – until the end of the 2023.<\/p>\n

Still, some analysts believe the central bank could deliver a small cut in the LPR in the coming weeks if inflation slows further.<\/p>\n

The central bank, which cut the RRR – the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves – in March, has kept the benchmark lending rates since September.<\/p>\n

“We need to maintain the stability and continuity of macro policies to consolidate the economic recovery,” said Wen Bin, chief economist at China Minsheng Bank.<\/p>\n

“There is still room for cutting RRR, but a cut in the near term is unlikely.”<\/p>\n

Consumer inflation will likely quicken to 2.3% in 2023 from 2.0% in 2022, before steadying in 2024, the poll showed.<\/p>\n

(For other stories from the Reuters global long-term economic outlook polls package:)<\/p>\n

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(Polling by Veronica Khongwir and Devayani Sathyan in Bengaluru and Jing Wang in Shanghai; Reporting by Kevin Yao; Editing by Sam Holmes)<\/p>\n

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By Kevin Yao BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s gross domestic product likely perked up in the first quarter of the year, a Reuters poll showed on Friday, as the end of strict COVID-19 curbs helped lift the world’s second-largest economy out of a crippling pandemic slump. GDP growth was seen speeding up to 4.0% in the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":10109,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"spay_email":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[1216],"tags":[1223],"class_list":["post-10103","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-u-s-economy","tag-updated"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"http:\/\/lynettelockhart.com\/client\/wp-content\/uploads\/Reuters_Direct_Media\/USOnlineReportBusinessNews\/tagreuters.com2023binary_LYNXMPEJ3D05R-VIEWIMAGE.jpg","_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/lynettelockhart.com\/client\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10103","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/lynettelockhart.com\/client\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/lynettelockhart.com\/client\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/lynettelockhart.com\/client\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/8"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/lynettelockhart.com\/client\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10103"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"http:\/\/lynettelockhart.com\/client\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10103\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10110,"href":"http:\/\/lynettelockhart.com\/client\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10103\/revisions\/10110"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/lynettelockhart.com\/client\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/10109"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/lynettelockhart.com\/client\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10103"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/lynettelockhart.com\/client\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10103"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/lynettelockhart.com\/client\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10103"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}